Created
01/2022
Global Sector Rotation
Sector Rotation
Portfolio Overview
The Global Sector Rotation Portfolio leverages a relative strength momentum strategy to invest in the top three best-performing assets from a global sector ETF universe. This model selects assets based on multiple weighted lookback periods to determine the strongest-performing sectors, while also incorporating a risk control mechanism using a moving average on the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI).
The portfolio is designed to maintain an equal weight allocation among the top-performing assets while utilizing a 15% stop-loss threshold for added risk management. If any asset falls below the 15% threshold or the regime risk control signals that the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF is below its moving average, the allocation is shifted to iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) for safety.
The portfolio is rebalanced every two months based on end-of-month signals, ensuring the strategy remains adaptive to market conditions. The backtested results show that this approach delivers a balance of growth potential while protecting against downside risk during unfavorable market regimes.
StopLoss: A stop loss at each asset with a 15% threshold. If any asset gets stopped out, the cash will be invested in IEF until the next signal.
Rebalance: At Monthly Signal (within 5%, watch tutorial)
Summary of Statistics
Statistic | Portfolio | Benchmark 60SPY/40IEF |
Annualized Return | 10.85% | 9.5% |
Annualized Volatility | 11.98% | 9.9% |
Max Drawdown (EOM) | -19.12% | -29.5% |
Longest Drawdown | 33 Months | 40 Months |
Best Month Return | 13.35% | 10.7% |
% Profitable Months | 62.7% | 66.7% |
Worst Month Return | -11.57% | -10.7% |
Sharpe Ratio | 0.83 | 0.5 |
Sortino Ratio | 1.37 | 0.84 |
Growth of $10,000 (starting on Aug 2019)
Growth of $10,000 (starting on Dec 2007)
Drawdown Curve
Asset Universe
Positions / Month: (1-3)
Monthly & Annual Returns
Benefits
- Momentum-Driven Selection: The portfolio consistently invests in the top three best-performing global sectors using a relative strength momentum strategy, ensuring that only the strongest sectors are included.
- Risk Control through Moving Average: A moving average on Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) acts as a regime filter, shifting investments into bonds (IEF) during periods of market weakness, and reducing risk in volatile conditions.
- Equal Weight Allocation: The selected assets are equally weighted, preventing overexposure to any single sector while maintaining balanced exposure to the strongest-performing assets.
- Stop-Loss Protection: A 15% stop-loss threshold for each asset provides an additional layer of protection, automatically shifting underperforming assets to bonds (IEF) to safeguard against significant losses.
- Systematic Rebalancing: The portfolio rebalances every two months based on clear, predefined signals, ensuring consistent and disciplined adjustments that remove emotional bias from investment decisions.